ISLAMOFILE 120208: Obama Is Warned Of Nuclear-Enabled Iran In His First Year

Iran poses the greatest foreign policy challenge to the new president with Tehran on course to produce a nuclear bomb in the first year of an Obama administration, an unprecedented coalition of top think tanks warned yesterday.

Barack Obama must follow through on his promises of direct talks with Tehran and engage the Middle East region as a whole if he is to halt a looming crisis that could be revisited on the United States, the experts warned.

“Diplomacy is not guaranteed to work: it is not,” Richard Hass, one of the authors said. “But the other options – military action or living with an Iranian weapon are sufficiently unattractive for it to warrant serious commitment.”

The warnings came in a report called “Restoring the Balance,” a Middle East strategy for the incoming president drafted by the Council for Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution. Gary Samore, one of the authors, said the level of alarm over the “hornet’s nest” facing the new president in the Middle East, and the need for the swift adoption of previously untested approach, had inspired the unprecedented decision to write policy for him. “New administrations can choose new policies but they can’t choose next contexts,” Mr. Samore said. “This is what they inherit.”

The report paints a grim picture of the problems in the region but asserts that Mr. Obama is still in a strong position to exploit the positives. For the first time since the Iranian revolution, the leadership in Tehran has endorsed the idea of talking directly with Washington, as Mr. Obama has suggested. Falling oil prices also provide a new opportunity, restricting Iran’s means to sponsor terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah that act as its proxy in the region.

The new administration, however, must not fall into the trap of treating Iran in isolation to the rest of the Middle East, as the previous administration did, but deal with it as part of a larger jigsaw within the region.

Syria, which has shown tentative signs of a desire for better relations with the West, and has held negotiations with Israel through Turkish interlocutors, could be the idea test case for a new diplomatic approach. “Syria is a natural candidate for direct contact,” Mr. Hass said, as part of “a greater embrace of diplomacy with out preconditions” that should be extended to Iran.

The report laid blame for much of the crisis squarely with the Bush administration, whose war in Iraq fuelled Iran’s ascendancy as a regional power. But the authors warned against an “ABB” – anything but Bush – approach, urging Mr. Obama to build on some of the changes in direction over the last two years. “Change for sake of change is not a good idea,” Mr. Hass said. “Great powers have to be predictable.”

Mr. Obama must also team up with Arab countries for an urgent push to resolve the stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, they said. Efforts by the Quartet – created “by mistake over vodkas at the Russian ambassador’s house,” according to Mr. Indyk, who was present, were necessarily limited because of the lack of Arab representation. “Time is not working in favour of a resolution,” he warned, noting the hardening of Israeli public opinion. “There is a real danger that support for a two-state resolution will falter.” (source)

Cold War 21: Russia Announces New System To Avoid US Missile Shield

Col.-Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov with President Medvedev.

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's military is planning to upgrade its missiles to allow them to evade American weapons in space and penetrate any prospective missile shield, a Russian general said Monday.
In comments to the Interfax news agency, Russia's Strategic Missile Forces chief, Col.-Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, as saying that Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles will be modernized to protect them from space-based components of the U.S. missile defense system.

The upgrade will make the missiles' warheads capable of flying "outside the range" of the space-based system, Solovtsov was quoted as saying.

He didn't elaborate, but Russian officials have previously boasted about prospective new warheads capable of making sharp maneuvers to dodge missile defense systems.

Solovtsov also reportedly said the military will commission new RS-24 missiles equipped with state-of-the-art systems to help penetrate a missile shield. He did not specify that Moscow intended to penetrate a U.S. missile shield, but the Kremlin has fiercely opposed the U.S. plan to deploy a battery of 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a related radar in the Czech Republic.

Russia has criticized U.S. plans for space-based weapons, saying they could trigger a new arms race. Washington has resisted efforts by Russia and China to negotiate a global ban on weapons in space.

Reflecting Russia's suspicions about U.S. intentions, Solovtsov alleged Monday that the U.S. is considering the scenario of a first nuclear strike that would destroy most Russian missiles. A few surviving Russian weapons launched in retaliation could then be destroyed by the U.S. missile defense system.

Solovtsov said the concept was not feasible.

"The Americans will never be able to implement this scenario, because Russian strategic nuclear forces, including the Strategic Missile Forces, will be capable of delivering a strike of retribution under any course of developments," he was quoted by Interfax as saying.

U.S. officials have said repeatedly that the prospective missile defense system isn't intended to be used against Russia. But Russian leaders have dismissed U.S. claims that the sites in Poland and the Czech Republic are intended to counter a missile threat from Iran, saying they will threaten Russia's nuclear forces.

The day after Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election, President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia will respond to the U.S. plans by deploying short-range missiles in its westernmost Kaliningrad region near Poland.

Medvedev and his predecessor and mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, then took a step back, saying that Russia will only make the move if the U.S. deploys the missile defense in Europe. They expressed hope that the new U.S. administration will scrap the plan.

Although windfall oil revenues allowed the Kremlin to boost military budgets, Russian arms makers have had trouble producing new weapons because of the loss of key technologies and the exodus of qualified workers. The prospective Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile for nuclear submarines, for example, has failed repeatedly over the years.

However, officials said a Bulava test last week was a success, and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said Monday the test program was to be completed next year. He said the missile has already been ordered into serial production. (source)

ISLAMOFILE 113008: As Pakistani-Indian Tensions Rise To "War Levels", Rice Visits

Pakistani-Indian border.

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has appealed to India not to punish his country for last week's attacks in Mumbai, saying militants have the power to precipitate a war in the region, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Zardari, whose wife Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by Islamist militants last year, warned that provocation by rogue "non-state actors" posed the danger of a return to war between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

"Even if the militants are linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, who do you think we are fighting?" asked Zardari in an interview with the Financial Times.

"We live in troubled times where non-state actors have taken us to war before, whether it is the case of those who perpetrated (the) 9/11 (attacks on the United States) or contributed to the escalation of the situation in Iraq," said Zardari.

"Now, events in Mumbai tell us that there are ongoing efforts to carry out copycat attacks by militants. We must all stand together to fight out this menace."

The Mumbai assaults that killed nearly 200 people bore the hallmarks of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based group blamed for previous attacks in India.

Indian officials have said most, perhaps all, of the 10 Islamist attackers who held Mumbai hostage with frenzied attacks using assault rifles and grenades came from Pakistan, a Muslim nation carved out of Hindu-majority India in 1947.

The fallout from the three-day rampage in Mumbai, India's commercial center, has threatened to unravel India's improving ties with Pakistan and prompted the resignation of India's security minister.

RICE VISIT

The White House said on Sunday that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would travel to India on Wednesday, as analysts warned the United States could get ensnared in the row and it may prove to be a setback in the war on Islamic radicals on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

"Secretary Rice's visit to India is a further demonstration of the United States' commitment to stand in solidarity with the people of India as we all work together to hold these extremists accountable," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said in a statement.

Rice will arrive in New Delhi on Wednesday after attending a NATO meeting in London on Tuesday.
New Delhi has said it was raising security to a "war level" and had no doubt of a Pakistani link to the attacks, which unleashed anger at home over the intelligence failure and the delayed response to the violence that paralyzed India's financial capital.

Officials in Islamabad have warned any escalation would force it to divert troops to the Indian border and away from a U.S.-led anti-militant campaign on the Afghan frontier.

Zardari has vowed to crack down if given proof.

But security officials in Islamabad said Pakistan would move troops from its western border with Afghanistan, where forces are battling al Qaeda and Taliban fighters as part of the U.S.-led campaign against militancy, to the Indian border if tension escalated.

"It's part of the usual blackmail of the United States that Pakistan does to take more interest in India-Pakistan issues," said B. Raman, a former head of Indian intelligence agency RAW.

"They think this kind of argument will make the United States sit up and take notice of their sensitivities and do something about it," he added, referring to warming ties between Washington and New Delhi, including a nuclear accord.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Sunday he would boost and overhaul the nation's counterterrorism capabilities, an announcement which came after Federal Home Minister Shivraj Patil resigned over the attacks. (source)

US On Iraqi Presence, According To President Elect Obama: We're Out in 16 Months, But Not Really

CHICAGO (Reuters) - President-elect Barack Obama said on Monday he believed U.S. combat troops should leave Iraq within 16 months of his taking office but he would listen to advice from military commanders.

"I believe that 16 months is the right timeframe but, as I've said consistently, I will listen to the recommendations of my commanders," Obama said after unveiling his nominees for top national security posts.

Obama said a new security pact between Iraq and the United States already put the United States on a "glide path" to pulling out of Iraq. He also noted that a "residual" U.S. force may need to remain in Iraq longer than combat troops. (source)

ISLAMOFILE 120108: Mumbai Massacre Causes Indian Leaders To Resign

A second top Indian politician offered to resign on Monday as the Indian government came under intense pressure over its handling of the Mumbai attacks, which claimed at least 192 lives in a rampage by a team of well-organised terrorists.

Vilasrao Deshmukh, Maharashtra state chief minister and a member of the ruling Congress party, said on Monday he had offered to resign following the terror attacks. (source)

Somali Pirates Now Hijack A Luxury Cruise Liner

The Oceania Nautica was attacked by pirates on Sunday morning.

A luxury cruise ship carrying dozens of British passengers has been attacked by pirates in the Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia, en route to Oman.

The Oceania Nautica was fired at during its 32-day voyage from Rome to Singapore.

The ship – carrying 690 passengers and 386 crew – was approached yesterday by two small skiffs which fired several shots.

No one on board was hurt and Nautica's captain Jurica Brajcic was able to take evasive action and outrun the two boats.

"One of the skiffs did manage to close the range to 300 yards and fired eight rifle shots in the direction of the vessel before trailing off," said a statement by Oceania. "No one aboard Nautica was harmed and no damage was sustained."

29 Britons are on board the cruise ship, which is due to arrive in Oman today. Passengers paid an average of £15,000 for the cruise.

Last week's capture of the 330-metre Sirius Star, containing two million barrels of oil, was the largest of nearly 100 vessels to be attacked off the coast of Somalia this year.

However, the interception of a cruise ship is far less common. The Gulf of Aden is regularly crossed by cruise ships and the waters are patrolled by anti-piracy forces.

The last such incident involving a cruise ship occurred in November 2005 when the liner Seabourn Spirit was fired upon with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades, injuring one crew member.

A spokeswoman for the Passenger Shipping Association - which represents Oceania Cruises - described the incident as a rarity, and maintained that cruising was a safe way to travel.

"Safety is of utmost importance to all cruise companies," she said.

"Each ship must follow security standards and procedures to ensure the well-being of passengers and staff, and they liase with national security and intelligence agencies."

The size of cruise ships means that it can be difficult to board them from smaller vessels. When threatened, some liners possess long-range acoustic devices (LRAD), which emit high frequency noise, to deter potential attackers.(source)

ISLAMOFILE 120108: Mumbai May Have Five More Terrorists At Large

Indian Black Cat Commando Rhys Blakely in Mumbai

At least five terrorist gunmen might have escaped the carnage in Mumbai and could strike again, it emerged yesterday as a video surfaced showing the capture of the gang’s sole known surviving member.

The prospect of more killers added to public anger at the Indian Government’s lax handling of the worst terror strike to hit the country in 15 years.

The security forces claimed that only ten militants – nine of whom were killed and one caught alive – were behind the coordinated attacks that claimed nearly 200 lives. Rakesh Maria, a joint commissioner of police, said: “Their plan was just to cause maximum damage and return with hostages protecting themselves.”

However, a hijacked Indian fishing boat used by the gunmen had equipment for 15 men on board when it was discovered adrift – suggesting that several gunmen could still be at large.

“Fifteen winter jackets were found, fifteen toothbrushes,” a police source said. “That more terrorists are loose is possible.”

Ajmal Amir Kasab, the only gunman to be caught alive, said during police questioning that 24 men were trained in camps in Pakistan for the mission, according to a leaked account of his police interrogation.

He has since claimed, apparently, that only ten made the final trip to Mumbai, including him. Police are continuing to question the 21-year-old, who has said that he and his accomplices planned to kill 5,000 people.

Security experts say that a force of ten heavily armed men could carry out an operation on the scale of the Mumbai strike only if they received extensive training and local support.

Investigators believe that at least five or six additional people were immediately involved in preparing for the attacks by organising logistics and carrying out reconnaissance.

Grainy mobile phone footage broadcast yesterday by Sky Television sheds little light on the militants’ methods, but it documents the capture of the “baby-faced gunman”.

It shows Kasab’s last stand: a small crowd is seen shouting and beating a man lying on the ground in a Mumbai street as police officers, blowing whistles and waving long sticks, try to restore order.

Police say that Kasab arrived with the other militants in two dinghies that moored on the seafront by the Gateway of India, near the Taj Mahal Palace hotel. The militants then commandeered several cars and set off towards ten different sites across the city.

Kasab and one other gunman, Abu Ismail, headed straight for Chhat-rapati Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai’s main railway station, where they opened fire with AK47s, killing dozens. It was there that he was photographed, holding his AK47 in one hand, in an image that has been seen around the world.

“They were right there,” recalled Sebastian D’Souza, the man who took the photograph, pointing to the spot on the platform where he first saw the gunmen. “They never raised their guns, they were very cool. They just kept firing from their hips,” he told Sky News.

“I saw lots of people shot dead, just lying there, nobody caring for them,” he said. “If somebody had engaged them in some crossfire . . . ” But no one did, so Kasab and his accomplice moved on to Cama hospital, according to Mumbai police.

There he and Abu Ismail shot dead three of India’s top police officers who were rushing to the scene in a vehicle. The terrorists continued on their shooting spree, firing shots in the air at the Metro Cinema until their vehicle suffered a puncture.

Kasab and Abu Ismail then stole a golden Skoda Laura and were driving it towards Chowpatty beach, a popular evening destination for families in south Mumbai, when they were intercepted by a police team.

Abu Ismail was killed in the shoot-out, while Kasab was shot in his hand, according to police. It was then that he was attacked by the mob as shown in the mobile phone footage.



Initially he pretended to be dead, and was being taken to hospital when a police officer realised that he was breathing, according to Indian media reports. They said that when he reached hospital he told staff there: “I don’t want to die.” Later, after a police interrogation, he reportedly said: “Now I don’t want to live.” (source)